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While it will possibly take months and even the rest of the year to see the full shakeout, April 2025 was a laboratory for market efficiency. Some might contend there was an element of ruthlessness in the activity. Starting even before the Trump administration’s trade policy tariffs went into effect on April 2, the “Bond …

Vigilante justice? Financial markets react quickly to policy changes. Read More »

    [Note: In this column, for the first time, your correspondent relied on ChatGPT, the generative artificial intelligence (AI) platform. For the record, I submitted this inquiry: “Write a 700-word essay on how the shape of the Treasury yield curve affects community banks.” The following was generated in, I guess, three seconds, and most …

Concepts and Facts: ChatGPT gets it mostly right on yield curve shapes Read More »

   Callable securities present risk and reward.   Most representatives of the broker-dealer industry have been suggesting to their customers, especially community banks, that their collection of bonds could be situated to perform pretty well in 2025. You can be forgiven for rolling your eyes if you’ve heard this. And I get it: Persistently stubborn …

Yield Enhancer or Gimmick? Read More »

While we in the financial services sector start thinking about monetary policy in the coming year, there’s a new wrinkle to consider. Many Fed-watchers, rate prognosticators, economists and even investors had been betting on substantially lower rates in 2025 for many months. It looked like the corner had been turned with the 50 basis–point (0.50%) …

A Fresh Perspective: FOMC’s 2025 roster has some new voters Read More »

At long last, some rate relief   I don’t know about you, but I’ve always looked forward to the early days of autumn. I’m of a certain vintage that remembers when September and October ushered in a break from summer heat (which seems to be later in the calendar these days), and there was a …

Easing into the fall Read More »

Inherit a prominent place in bond portfolios.   There are a whole lot of anomalies in community banking in the waning stages of this restrictive Fed cycle. One of the overriding themes is the sheer duration of the process. We’re now fully one year past the last tightening, which has left the effective overnight rate …

The Meek… Read More »

National pastime gives us some portfolio management guidance.   As we’re getting into the warmer months, it’s reassuring that baseball season is well underway. Your correspondent confesses a deep and abiding passion for the sport. While I’ve been only partially successful in getting my wife engaged in watching live baseball, she has gamely accompanied me …

Play ball! Read More »

  We wrapped up our Personal Branding elective yesterday here at the Barret Graduate School of Banking led by the incomparable Emily Mays.  For content creators, sometimes life just hands you the perfect situation that goes right along with something at work and provides a great illustration.  For songwriters, we think of this as the …

Personal Branding and Leadership:  The Danger of Ignorance Read More »

  How to benefit from a lull in the economy.   Tell me if you’ve heard this: An inverted yield curve is highly correlated with a subsequent recession. And might I point out that the U. S. treasury curve has been upside down for pushing two years now? Since we’re playing master of the obvious, …

Recession proofing Read More »