Jim Reber

Many community bankers are beginning to get serious about their bond portfolios as liquidity has normalized, and rates have stayed, shall we say, buoyant. It occurs to me that the still-visible 2022-23 selloff has created at least one byproduct that is both unusual and tangibly beneficial for future performance.   Portfolio managers continue to embrace …

Collateral Advantage: The MBS market offers a kaleidoscope of opportunities Read More »

Bond Yield Relationships Are Looking Familiar, Finally   I would like to make clear in the title of this column that we’re not talking about anything rude or unfriendly. In fact, you are about to learn just the opposite. It has been many a year since the U.S. bond market’s yield curve has been normally …

Mean Reversion Read More »

Fed’s balance sheet has some duration, for better or worse   It appears that, assuming the nominee for the next federal reserve chairman is confirmed by the Senate, he is going to have to roll up his sleeves to achieve some of his monetary policy priorities. Not that Kevin Warsh isn’t up to the task. …

Staying Power Read More »

Community banks set for a robust 2026   I’m hopeful that those New Year’s Resolutions are intact and having their desired effects. In taking one more look back into 2025, it dawns on me the further we got into the year, the better the bankers’ comments were about their bank’s performance. The industry seems to …

Off and running Read More »

Since we started seeing Halloween decorations in August, I felt it was high time we started thinking about the Holiday season. More specifically, as it relates to community banking. And still more specifically, about a checklist for the balance sheet. There are some seasonal items that bear attention prior to, and immediately after, year end. …

Making a list, checking it twice Read More »

How bond markets react to rate cuts   In just a few short weeks, the fixed-income market’s expectations for monetary policy have done a virtual about-face. This is not to say that investors are fickle. Some of this change in sentiment is data driven; some is Trump administration officials’ cajoling; and some is Federal Reserve …

On your marks Read More »

Fed’s forward guidance reflects uncertainty.   I hope the readers of this column will excuse the lack of decorum in the title, but in reading and listening to the words of the Federal Reserve Board’s members over the past month, I hear a lot of hedging. And far be it from me to second guess …

Whole lotta thinkin’ going on Read More »

While it will possibly take months and even the rest of the year to see the full shakeout, April 2025 was a laboratory for market efficiency. Some might contend there was an element of ruthlessness in the activity. Starting even before the Trump administration’s trade policy tariffs went into effect on April 2, the “Bond …

Vigilante justice? Financial markets react quickly to policy changes. Read More »

    [Note: In this column, for the first time, your correspondent relied on ChatGPT, the generative artificial intelligence (AI) platform. For the record, I submitted this inquiry: “Write a 700-word essay on how the shape of the Treasury yield curve affects community banks.” The following was generated in, I guess, three seconds, and most …

Concepts and Facts: ChatGPT gets it mostly right on yield curve shapes Read More »

   Callable securities present risk and reward.   Most representatives of the broker-dealer industry have been suggesting to their customers, especially community banks, that their collection of bonds could be situated to perform pretty well in 2025. You can be forgiven for rolling your eyes if you’ve heard this. And I get it: Persistently stubborn …

Yield Enhancer or Gimmick? Read More »