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Fed’s balance sheet has some duration, for better or worse It appears that, assuming the nominee for the next federal reserve chairman is confirmed by the Senate, he is going to have to roll up his sleeves to achieve some of his monetary policy priorities. Not that Kevin Warsh isn’t up to the task. …
Community banks set for a robust 2026 I’m hopeful that those New Year’s Resolutions are intact and having their desired effects. In taking one more look back into 2025, it dawns on me the further we got into the year, the better the bankers’ comments were about their bank’s performance. The industry seems to …
Since we started seeing Halloween decorations in August, I felt it was high time we started thinking about the Holiday season. More specifically, as it relates to community banking. And still more specifically, about a checklist for the balance sheet. There are some seasonal items that bear attention prior to, and immediately after, year end. …
How bond markets react to rate cuts In just a few short weeks, the fixed-income market’s expectations for monetary policy have done a virtual about-face. This is not to say that investors are fickle. Some of this change in sentiment is data driven; some is Trump administration officials’ cajoling; and some is Federal Reserve …
Fed’s forward guidance reflects uncertainty. I hope the readers of this column will excuse the lack of decorum in the title, but in reading and listening to the words of the Federal Reserve Board’s members over the past month, I hear a lot of hedging. And far be it from me to second guess …
While it will possibly take months and even the rest of the year to see the full shakeout, April 2025 was a laboratory for market efficiency. Some might contend there was an element of ruthlessness in the activity. Starting even before the Trump administration’s trade policy tariffs went into effect on April 2, the “Bond …
Vigilante justice? Financial markets react quickly to policy changes. Read More »
[Note: In this column, for the first time, your correspondent relied on ChatGPT, the generative artificial intelligence (AI) platform. For the record, I submitted this inquiry: “Write a 700-word essay on how the shape of the Treasury yield curve affects community banks.” The following was generated in, I guess, three seconds, and most …
Concepts and Facts: ChatGPT gets it mostly right on yield curve shapes Read More »
Callable securities present risk and reward. Most representatives of the broker-dealer industry have been suggesting to their customers, especially community banks, that their collection of bonds could be situated to perform pretty well in 2025. You can be forgiven for rolling your eyes if you’ve heard this. And I get it: Persistently stubborn …
While we in the financial services sector start thinking about monetary policy in the coming year, there’s a new wrinkle to consider. Many Fed-watchers, rate prognosticators, economists and even investors had been betting on substantially lower rates in 2025 for many months. It looked like the corner had been turned with the 50 basis–point (0.50%) …
A Fresh Perspective: FOMC’s 2025 roster has some new voters Read More »
At long last, some rate relief I don’t know about you, but I’ve always looked forward to the early days of autumn. I’m of a certain vintage that remembers when September and October ushered in a break from summer heat (which seems to be later in the calendar these days), and there was a …
Barret School of Banking • 650 East Parkway South, Memphis, TN 38104
Phone: (901) 321-4000 • barret@barretbanking.org