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[Note: In this column, for the first time, your correspondent relied on ChatGPT, the generative artificial intelligence (AI) platform. For the record, I submitted this inquiry: “Write a 700-word essay on how the shape of the Treasury yield curve affects community banks.” The following was generated in, I guess, three seconds, and most …
Concepts and Facts: ChatGPT gets it mostly right on yield curve shapes Read More »
Callable securities present risk and reward. Most representatives of the broker-dealer industry have been suggesting to their customers, especially community banks, that their collection of bonds could be situated to perform pretty well in 2025. You can be forgiven for rolling your eyes if you’ve heard this. And I get it: Persistently stubborn …
While we in the financial services sector start thinking about monetary policy in the coming year, there’s a new wrinkle to consider. Many Fed-watchers, rate prognosticators, economists and even investors had been betting on substantially lower rates in 2025 for many months. It looked like the corner had been turned with the 50 basis–point (0.50%) …
A Fresh Perspective: FOMC’s 2025 roster has some new voters Read More »
At long last, some rate relief I don’t know about you, but I’ve always looked forward to the early days of autumn. I’m of a certain vintage that remembers when September and October ushered in a break from summer heat (which seems to be later in the calendar these days), and there was a …
Inherit a prominent place in bond portfolios. There are a whole lot of anomalies in community banking in the waning stages of this restrictive Fed cycle. One of the overriding themes is the sheer duration of the process. We’re now fully one year past the last tightening, which has left the effective overnight rate …
National pastime gives us some portfolio management guidance. As we’re getting into the warmer months, it’s reassuring that baseball season is well underway. Your correspondent confesses a deep and abiding passion for the sport. While I’ve been only partially successful in getting my wife engaged in watching live baseball, she has gamely accompanied me …
How to benefit from a lull in the economy. Tell me if you’ve heard this: An inverted yield curve is highly correlated with a subsequent recession. And might I point out that the U. S. treasury curve has been upside down for pushing two years now? Since we’re playing master of the obvious, …
Some bond sectors performed better than others in 2023. As we have navigated the holiday season, and hopefully had some time to wrap up some gifts as well as a successful 2023, let’s now spend a few minutes looking into pockets of relative value in the bond market. To get there, we should remind …
Time out for trivia Q’s and A’s to enlighten portfolio management If you’re a sports fan (and I know you are), and you’re also of a vintage that has recall back several decades, you may have heard of Todd Donaho. Donaho was the self-proclaimed “commissioner of sports trivia” as the host of Time Out …
“As you get older, three things happen: the memory goes, and I forget the other two”—Erma Bombeck Being one who can empathize with the late, great humorist Ms. Bombeck, I thought it might be interesting to discuss a segment of the fixed income universe that has served community banking well over the decades. It’s …
Remember the Munis: Don’t go to sleep on a profitable bond sector Read More »
Barret School of Banking • 650 East Parkway South, Memphis, TN 38104
Phone: (901) 321-4000 • barret@barretbanking.org